Max Verstappen's contractual position is no longer the most threatening Verstappen story for Formula 1. According to a long-form discussion on The Race podcast, the version of a Verstappen exit that worries the sport, the FIA and Liberty Media the most is not a contract negotiation. It is a public verdict.
The episode, fronted by Edd Straw with Jon Noble and Matt Maggendee, walks through what Red Bull 2.0 needs to do to keep Verstappen, and what F1 looks like in the scenarios where it does not. Maggendee, the author of a forthcoming book embedded inside Red Bull's 2025 season, drew a distinction between the two kinds of Verstappen departure F1 should be preparing for.
Maggendee argued that the historically familiar exit, a champion leaving the sport at the right time to spend more time with family and on other projects, would barely move the dial. Hamilton, Schumacher, Prost, Senna and Fangio have all retired or moved on. The sport has continued each time.
The scenario Maggendee says is genuinely different is the one in which Verstappen does not retire, but walks away citing the 2026 regulations themselves. "Imagine if Formula 1's dealing with a scenario where Verstappen walks away and basically says, 'It's a bit rubbish,'" Maggendee said. "That is very different to 'I want to spend more time doing other things with family. I've done all this. I've done everything I need to do in Formula 1.'"
The FIA exposure in that scenario is what The Race podcast's analysis returns to. The 2026 power-unit and aerodynamic reset has been the most politically loaded regulatory cycle since the V6 hybrid introduction in 2014. A driver of Verstappen's standing publicly framing the era as a backward step would convert what is currently a technical debate inside the paddock into a fan-facing referendum on the rules. The question the podcast posed back to the sport's governing bodies is whether the FIA would, in that situation, be willing to bend on rule details to keep him in the cockpit.
That is where the second piece of the discussion lands. The Race podcast argues that, if 2026 continues to disappoint Verstappen, Red Bull's best-case outcome may not be a contract renewal at all. It may be a sabbatical. The framing the panel used is striking: "I'd be very surprised if Max isn't racing for Red Bull next year, but is racing for another team in Formula 1. I wouldn't be so surprised if he's not racing for Red Bull, sat on the sidelines and then in a holding pattern waiting to see where the ground lies for 2028."
A Verstappen sabbatical, the panel suggested, would not be neutral for the field. It would force Red Bull's hand on its 2028 driver line-up, hand Mercedes' Antonelli a clear runway to lock down generational status, and reset both the FIA's regulation pressure and the engine partner conversation around what the field's biggest free-agent reset since Vettel will look like.
The panel was clear that Verstappen has, in the past, signalled loyalty to Red Bull personally rather than to the regulation set. Team principal Laurent Mekies has continued to publicly position the 28-year-old as the team's centre of gravity. But the contingency planning, in the way The Race describes it, is not about whether Verstappen leaves. It is about what he says on the way out, and what the sport does in the hours after he does.
Source: youtube.com